opinionSeptember 7, 2024
Trump has a clear path to dismantling Kamala Harris's campaign in one debate. Discover the four key strategies he can use to sway undecided voters and capitalize on her vulnerabilities.
Marc Thiessen
Marc Thiessen

If we have learned anything in recent months, it is that a single bad debate can end a presidential campaign — which is why Vice President Kamala Harris is apparently afraid to do more than one 90-minute, teleprompter-free exchange with former president Donald Trump.

If Harris’s only interview since becoming her party’s nominee is anything to go on, Democrats have reason to be worried. Harris was not prepared to answer the most simple and obvious question: If you are elected, what would you do on Day 1? How can someone run for president of the United States and not have a ready answer to that question? She had nothing to offer but a cringe-inducing word salad. A moment like that on the debate stage, with tens of millions watching, could be fatal.

But the evening holds risks for Trump, too. If he comes in too hot, like he did in 2020’s first debate with Joe Biden, he risks alienating the small number of undecided voters in a handful of swing states who will decide this election. Many of these voters don’t like the direction of the country but are nonetheless reluctant to put Trump back in the Oval Office. On the debate stage Tuesday, Trump’s every answer should be focused on winning these voters over. Here are four ways he can do that:

1. Remind swing voters of what they like about him: his policies. At a recent rally, Trump mocked advisers who tell him to focus on policy, not insults: “They always say, ‘Sir, please stick to policy. Don’t get personal.’ And yet [Democrats are] getting personal all night long.” The reason they do so is because it is their only path to victory. In a fight over policy, Democrats lose. A July Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found that a majority of voters support all the key elements of the GOP platform, and 54% approve of the job Trump did as president — including majorities of every age and a dozen demographic groups. When he focuses on policy and contrasts his record with that of the Biden-Harris administration, he reminds swing voters of what they liked about his presidency. Focus on policy.

2. Don’t remind swing voters of what they don’t like about him. A July New York Times-Siena College poll asked: Has Donald Trump ever said anything that you found offensive? Six in 10 Americans said either “no” or “yes, but not recently.” Among younger voters ages 18 to 29, it was nearly 7 in 10. Over the past four years, many voters’ memories of the reasons they disliked Trump have faded. So, Trump’s first task is not to remind them.

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Harris will try to goad Trump into leveling insults and personal attacks. And she will try to bait him into defending his actions on Jan. 6, 2021. He can’t take the bait. Many swing voters are considering voting for him despite his conduct that day, because they believe Biden and Harris are a disaster and remember that their lives were better under Trump. For these voters, hearing Trump defend Jan. 6 is like fingernails on a chalkboard. If he is talking about Jan. 6, he is losing. When Harris brings it up, he should pivot and remind voters that on Jan. 6, inflation was low, the border was secure, and the world was at peace. And he should point out that the real danger to our democracy is allowing Democrats to gain power, get rid of the filibuster, pack the Supreme Court, make D.C. a state and ram through their radical agenda with a simple majority.

3. Make Harris the incumbent and tie her to Biden. Harris has decided on an audacious election strategy: She is running as the insurgent while treating Trump as the incumbent. Even her campaign slogan is “a new way forward.” A new way forward? She’s the vice president! But that strategy is working: A new Post-ABC-Ipsos poll found that 6 in 10 voters say Harris had only some or very little influence on the administration’s economic and border policies.

Trump needs to remind voters that she has been in office for the last four years. One way to do that: Don’t call her “Comrade Kamala.” Instead, use the nickname she is running away from: “Madam Vice President.” Not only would this come across as respectful (which would appeal to reluctant swing voters), but it would also remind them that she is, in fact, the vice president who cast the deciding vote on a spending bill that gave us the worst inflation in four decades, and who helped unleash the worst border crisis in American history. And if she wants to chart a “new way forward,” make her explain: What was wrong with the old way? Which Biden policies does she disagree with?

4. Make Harris own her record. Harris is not only running from Biden’s record; she is also running from her own. The flip-flops are coming so fast and furious it’s hard to keep up: She was for a federal ban on fracking, now she’s against it. She was for Medicare-for-all, now she’s not. She was for the Green New Deal, now she won’t talk about it. She was for decriminalizing illegal border crossings, now she’s against it. She was against a border wall, now she’s for one. Yet she claims, “My values have not changed.”

The way to call her out on these flip-flops is to force her to explain why she changed her positions. What is so great about a border wall? What is so bad about the Green New Deal? What do you now like about fracking? She can’t answer those questions because she is abandoning her 2019 platform positions and Senate record out of political expediency, not conviction. Expose that fact.

With one disciplined debate performance, Trump helped knock Biden out of the race. On Tuesday night, he has a chance to do the same to Harris.

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